This war has the high potential to affect WB future economically and politically. Countries are divided over condemning Russia and joining international sanctions. These differences if not managed will affect the current status of relations and hamper the progress achieved so far.

 Sokol Dervishaj

 War in Ukraine is the perfect proof that history is back and the clash of civilizations is stronger. Ukraine’s attempted invasion by Russia is a textbook war against a sovereign nation launched by an ambitious neighbor for clear political motives. Excuses are false. Creed and greed and no need are dominating Russia’s irrational posture threatening international peace and order.

A free nation is fighting bravely for survival and its own choices. EU path for its values of democracy, free market economy, civil liberties, human rights, justice and prosperity. And NATO for what it stands for, an alliance of freedom, peace and security. Europe whole and free failed. Ukrainians ar living a nightmare, not a miracle.

The answer to the question who failed is simple. All did. But most importantly those who promised and didn’t deliver.  Calculated short term interests prevailing over long term strategic choices. A  brokered peace might bring the end of a short lived western trajectory for Ukraine. World history will reopen old school books of negotiations and compromises about areas of influence, geography, territory, resources, strategic access, etc. Ukrainians have already given up NATO ambitions and have some vague EU membership hopes for what Ukraine will remain after this war.

World order is challenged and a new Cold War is at our doors. Life will not be the same any more. Globalization will be affected and strict national interests will regain ground in world economy and diplomacy. Boundaries will dictate the future. Europe has been impacted amidst years of increasing supply demands and enlargement hesitations. Nations will spend more on defense and a renewed Trans Atlantic Trade Agreement is in horizon. 21st century East v West.

For the people of the WB, the once powder keg region, memories of war in the 90’ are alive. After years of struggling to heal and reconcile they are still knocking on EU’s doors. The promised land fatigue is fueling rising tensions. Malign interventions with high potential for destabilization are hunting around. Russia has proved to be one of them. Montenegro a NATO member and EU candidate is struggling to keep its identity and democratization pace. Kosova and Serbia are lost in talks with the later’s ambiguous position mitigating alignment with EU foreign and security policy even its advanced faze of EU accession negotiations. Bosnia and Herzegovina is on the brink of failing as a state with the latest threat that events there are a Moscow concern. Northern Macedonia is trapped again in another historical dispute over identity and language. Albania is still waiting for Bulgaria to decide. Bruxelles is watching. Decision postponed. The public confidence in the process is shaking, harvesting disbelief. A vague perspective is not enough.

Ukraine is a strong message. This war has the high potential to affect WB future economically and politically. Countries are divided over condemning Russia and joining international sanctions. These differences if not managed will affect the current status of relations and hamper the progress achieved so far.

Regional cooperation and reconciliation is loosing speed. Public debates against and in support of this war are a growing concern. Politicians in countries with close ties with Russia must be warned and watched closely.

It is high time for European leaders to act and decide bravely. EU must be a destination for all those proven firm and stable allies, not just a perspective. Values and inclusion over prejudices and calculations must prevail. Ukraine is a lost opportunity. WB can be next. US and EU must work closely with established WB NATO partners to prevent further deterioration.

 

Sokol Dervishaj is an expert on international and security affairs